Topeka, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

186
FXUS63 KTOP 142314
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
514 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire danger this afternoon and again Friday and Saturday.

- Windy Friday and much colder Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

North to northwest upper flow to be the rule through the coming
week. Cooler and drier air has worked in with nearly steady
temperatures and dewpoints in the teens. Surface high pressure
tonight brings light winds though mid and high cloud look to
increase through the night. Have gone close to MOS for low
temperatures thinking dry air and clear skies will allow for a quick
drop in temps. Southerly low-level flow returns Thursday for
somewhat warmer temps despite some cloud lingering.

A deep upper trough digs southeast into the Great Lakes Friday with
a cold front passing through Thursday night. Deep northwest flow
brings strong wind potential much of Friday. Ensembles continue to
point to the strongest wind anomalies over the High Plains but
locally there should be steep low-level lapse rates under
considerable mid and high cloud. Low-level wind fields aren`t
particularly strong, but if mixing can be deep enough, winds may
reach around Advisory levels, especially gusts. Have increased
speeds toward the 90th-percentile values of NBM at this point. Can`t
completely rule out some trace precip Friday into Saturday in this
regime, something similar to this morning, with any amounts very low
and isolated with no impacts anticipated. Forecast high temperatures
have dropped off further for Saturday as 850 mb temps reach around
-20C, with current values now the coldest since mid-December, and
breezy winds keeping wind chills only in the single digits and
teens, then falling into the 0 to -10F range Sunday morning. The
northwest flow brings modifying temperatures Sunday but still near
to below normal into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 511 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period with northerly wind
becoming light and variable within the next few hours. Wind will
eventually shift around the southwest by tomorrow morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 214 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

A few periods of dry air and gusty winds will result in elevated
fire danger this afternoon, Friday, and Saturday. RH values have
fallen into the 30s and 40s early this afternoon with gusts around
30 MPH common. Winds will fall off around sunset with RH recovering
rather quickly. Friday brings the strongest winds, with northwest
winds sustained 20 to 30 MPH with gusts of 40 to perhaps at
times near 50 MPH. Details of mixing depths and persistence give
some uncertainty in the strength of winds. Northwest winds
continue into Saturday though are weaker, however RHs could
approach 20% Saturday, while likely staying in the 30s to lower
40s Friday. Very High Rangeland Fire Danger is expected for at
least portions of the area this afternoon, Friday, and Saturday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Jones
FIRE WEATHER...Poage